Semiconductor Cycle Economics
A filing-based memory-cycle project asking whether the current AI/HBM surge looks structurally different from history, or like the early stage of a familiar boom-bust cycle.
The signature metric is peak-to-trough drawdown: operating margin at a cycle peak versus the following trough, revenue decline, quarters to trough, and recovery speed.
SEC-filer memory-cycle research
Summary
Current answer
The current memory upturn is not dismissed as a simple repeat of 2018. HBM demand and AI infrastructure mix matter. But the latest reviewed quarter now shows a more specific descriptive fact: Micron FY2026 Q2 and SanDisk FY2026 Q3 operating margins are already above the highest historical annual memory margin in this dataset.
- Micron remains the cleanest long SEC-filer memory-cycle case.
- SanDisk is treated transparently as Form 10 carve-out history, FY2025 initial post-separation data, and standalone FY2026 quarterly data.
- Western Digital is useful but less clean because HDD and flash are mixed at consolidated level.
- After the February 21, 2025 separation, WDC and SanDisk are separate non-overlapping reporting entities.
- Intel is included only as a control case for non-memory semiconductor stress.
Core output: peak-to-trough cycle analysis.
Navigate
Suggested reading path
01
Start with Cycle Analysis
Peak-to-trough timeline, drawdown table, and company-by-company cycle reads.
Open analysis →02
Use company profiles for issuer context
Micron carries an added cycle-economics section; SanDisk and Western Digital have dedicated cycle profiles.
Jump to profiles →03
Use Methodology for definitions and exceptions
Drawdown rules, WDC restatement handling, SanDisk predecessor treatment, and Korean filer exclusion live on the shared methodology page.
Open methodology →
Outputs
Core outputs
The comparison is descriptive. It measures historical severity and current trajectory without turning those measurements into a peak call.
Core analysis
Peak-to-trough cycle history
Timeline, drawdown bars, and structured cycle table across Micron, SanDisk/WDC Flash, Western Digital, and Intel control data.
Open cycle analysis →Company evidence
Issuer and predecessor profiles
Micron, SanDisk, and Western Digital profiles with cycle-specific caveats and source trails.
View company profiles →Methodology & Data Policy
Drawdown rules and source exceptions
Definitions for peak/trough selection, recovery speed, WDC restatement handling, and SanDisk predecessor labeling.
Read methodology →Company roles
Company role preview
Three profile pages are included in this version. Intel remains a control section inside the core analysis, not a standalone profile.
Context
Industry framing
SK Hynix and Samsung are not in the dataset because this project uses SEC-filer comparability. The short context note is still relevant: SK Hynix's official newsroom benchmarked 2024 operating profit against the 2018 semiconductor super-boom record. That supports the project framing that the industry itself is comparing the current cycle with the prior acknowledged peak.
Scope
This is descriptive business analysis based on public filings. It does not provide investment advice, valuation targets, or trading recommendations.