CM Terminal / Independent research
The story says one thing. The pressure lands somewhere else.
CM Terminal is a filing-based research site on technology-infrastructure economics. It reads company filings — margins, capex, supplier pressure, and the limits of disclosure — to test where a technology story actually becomes real demand, and how that demand redistributes value, cost, control, and risk across the value chain.
Research framework
Four investigations. One analytical framework.
Filing-based. Value-chain. Disclosure against narrative. Each investigation tests a specific question against public-company metrics.
AI Infrastructure Economics
How does AI infrastructure demand change economic form as it moves through the value chain — showing up differently at compute platforms, foundries, memory suppliers, equipment makers, and facility infrastructure?
Output — Profit Capture vs Capital Burden
Cloud CapEx Translation
Is hyperscaler capital expenditure translating into proportional cloud revenue growth — or accumulating as depreciation burden before the revenue arrives?
Output — Translation gap ratio
Semiconductor Cycle Economics
Is the current AI/HBM-driven memory upturn structurally different from historical boom-bust cycles — or the early stage of a familiar pattern?
Output — Peak-to-trough drawdown table
AI Power Translation
When does AI power and data-center demand become financially observable in company disclosures — in orders and backlog figures, or only in qualitative language?
Output — Disclosure precision timeline
Research
Latest writing
When the Buyer Becomes the Seller: Meta, Nebius, and the Repricing of AI Compute Scarcity
Micron's Record Quarter Tests Whether Memory Is Still Cyclical
Inference Efficiency Does Not Eliminate Infrastructure Demand
AI Exposure Is Not an Economic Category
Independent research by
Aaron Qin
I study how technology narratives interact with physical and financial constraints, and where the two diverge. CM Terminal is where I publish the framework and the evidence.
About the research →