Research Hub

Curated research across notes, reports, and series.

Independent work on AI infrastructure, semiconductors, and system constraints—with flagship reports, ongoing notes, and topic-structured follow-on reading. For the full written catalog and search, use the Archive.

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Flagship Reports

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CMR

Report2026-01-01

Market Outlook 2026: The Year of Structural Convergence.

Annual intelligence outlook: from narrative-driven markets toward verification, engineering constraints, and thermodynamic limits as drivers of alpha.

Latest Notes

Recent research output

Six recent pieces—notes and framework essays—a preview only. The full catalog and search stay in the Archive.

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Framework2026-04-17

Why Frontier Model Progress Is No Longer Just an Algorithm Story (Part III): From Infrastructure Spillover to Market Sorting

Part III extends the series into market sorting: once the AI constraint stack is visible, markets begin to separate bottleneck control from thematic exposure.

AI Systems→

Framework2026-04-13

Why Frontier Model Progress Is No Longer Just an Algorithm Story (Part II): From System Bottlenecks to Infrastructure Spillover

A series essay on how frontier model bottlenecks propagate outward into GPUs, HBM, advanced packaging, interconnect, optical links, and data center infrastructure.

AI Systems→

Framework2026-04-09

Why Frontier Model Progress Is No Longer Just an Algorithm Story (Part I): From Transformer Scaling to System Bottlenecks

A framework essay on why frontier model progress is increasingly constrained by system-level scaling limits rather than algorithmic improvement alone. We trace the path from Transformer compute shape to memory, bandwidth, interconnect, and heavier inference budgets.

AI Systems→

Research Note2026-02-13

AMZN: The Thermodynamic Moat - Structural Research

The market sees a cash flow collapse; physics sees an energy transition. We analyze Amazon's $200B capital commitment as a strategic lock on baseload power and labor automation.

Digital Infrastructure→

Research Note2026-02-08

NVIDIA: Supply Chain Physics & the CoWoS-L Ramp

Recent volatility reflects a category error: shipment timing is being read as demand erosion. Our system-engineering lens highlights two physical governors on revenue recognition—advanced packaging ramp dynamics and downstream thermodynamic retrofit lag.

Digital Infrastructure→

Research Note2026-02-07

PLTR: Industrial Logic & Structural Efficiency - Research Note

Our research suggests Palantir has transitioned from a high-touch consulting model to scalable critical infrastructure. We analyze how improved unit economics and GAAP profitability justify the current valuation premium.

Digital Infrastructure→

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Topics & series

Jump into the Archive with a query prefilled. Only topics and series that appear on multiple pieces are listed.

Topics

Series

Frontier Model Progress2