Semiconductor Cycle Economics
Cycle analysis
The latest reviewed quarter puts Micron and SanDisk operating margins above every historical annual memory peak in this dataset, but the dataset does not prove that the cycle has resolved or that a peak is near.
This page compares historical peak-to-trough memory drawdowns with the current AI/HBM-driven recovery using the same filing-derived measures: operating margin swing, revenue decline, quarters to trough, and recovery speed.
Conclusion
What the comparison says
The memory-cycle signature is still visible
Micron moved from a FY2022 operating margin of 31.5% to -37.0% in FY2023, a-68.5pp swing. That is the clearest drawdown in this dataset.
The latest margins are above prior annual peaks
Micron's FY2026 Q2 operating margin was 67.6% and SanDisk's FY2026 Q3 margin was 69.1%. The highest historical annual memory margin here is Micron FY2018 at 49.3%.
Not every semiconductor drawdown is memory
Intel's drawdown is large, but it is a different mechanism. It is kept as a control case, not as a memory-cycle peer.
Cycle timeline
Operating margin peaks and troughs
Annual operating margin by issuer, extended with the latest reviewed FY2026 quarter where available. Micron peaks, troughs, and the latest unresolved recovery point are annotated because Micron is the primary cycle case.
Latest actuals
Current-cycle quarterlies
These are actual reported quarters reviewed directly in the 10-Q tables. They are not annualized. After the February 21, 2025 separation, WDC and SanDisk are separate non-overlapping businesses: WDC is continuing operations, while SanDisk is the standalone flash issuer.
| Company | Latest actual period | Revenue | Gross margin | Operating margin | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MU Micron Technology | FY2026 Q22026-02-26 | $23,860M | 74.4% | 67.6% | Micron Form 10-Q quarter; not annualized. |
SNDK SanDisk | FY2026 Q32026-04-03 | $5,950M | 78.3% | 69.1% | Standalone SanDisk Form 10-Q quarter after the February 21, 2025 separation; not annualized. |
WDC Western Digital | FY2026 Q32026-04-03 | $3,337M | 50.2% | 35.7% | WDC continuing-operations quarter after the February 21, 2025 SanDisk separation; no longer consolidates SanDisk. |
INTC Intel | FY2026 Q12026-03-28 | $13,577M | 39.4% | -23.1% | Intel Form 10-Q quarter; logic/CPU control case, not a memory-cycle peer. |
Drawdown comparison
Peak-to-trough operating-margin swing
Negative values show the size of the operating-margin decline from each selected peak to the following trough.
Cycle table
Peak-to-trough history
Current/in-progress rows are highlighted. They should be read as where the current recovery sits today, not as a completed cycle or a peak call.
| Company | Cycle window | Peak margin | Trough / current | Swing | Revenue decline | Peak to trough | Status | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MU operating margin | FY2015 to FY2016 | 18.5% | 1.4% | -17.2pp | -23.4% | 4 qtrs | resolved | A short memory pricing downturn: operating margin compressed toward zero before the FY2018 boom. |
MU operating margin | FY2018 to FY2020 | 49.3% | 14.0% | -35.3pp | -29.5% | 8 qtrs | resolved | The FY2018 high was the clean historical super-cycle peak in the Micron series. |
MU operating margin | FY2022 to FY2023 | 31.5% | -37.0% | -68.5pp | -49.5% | 4 qtrs | resolved | The sharpest Micron operating-margin drawdown in this dataset. |
MU operating margin | FY2023 to FY2026 Q2 | — | 67.6% | 104.6pp | — | — | current in progress | Current recovery is not a resolved peak. The row compares the FY2023 trough to Micron's latest reported actual quarter, FY2026 Q2, and is not annualized. |
SNDK operating margin | FY2022 to FY2023 | 12.3% | -33.4% | -45.7pp | -37.6% | 4 qtrs | resolved carveout basis | Audited combined carve-out statements from SanDisk's Form 10 package; not standalone public-company history before the separation. |
SNDK operating margin | FY2023 to FY2026 Q3 | — | 69.1% | 102.5pp | — | — | current in progress | Current row uses SanDisk's latest reported standalone quarter, FY2026 Q3. It is not annualized and is not a peak call. |
WDC operating margin | FY2018 to FY2019 | 17.5% | 0.5% | -17.0pp | -19.8% | 4 qtrs | resolved | Mixed HDD-plus-flash issuer-level cycle; not a pure memory read. |
WDC operating margin | FY2022 to FY2023 | 12.7% | -10.4% | -23.1pp | -34.5% | 4 qtrs | resolved pre spinoff basis | FY2024 remains pre-spinoff original basis; FY2025 continuing operations are not treated as the same cycle denominator. |
INTC operating margin | FY2020 to FY2024 | 30.4% | -22.0% | -52.4pp | -31.8% | 16 qtrs | control case | Control case: logic/CPU and manufacturing-transition stress, not the same memory pricing mechanism. |
Current trajectory
Micron recovery speed
This annual-only table keeps revenue growth and CapEx growth on a like-for-like fiscal-year basis. The FY2026 quarterly margin points are shown above and in the cycle table, not annualized into this recovery speed view.
| Period | Elapsed | Margin ramp | Revenue growth | CapEx growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2016 trough to FY2018 peak | 8 qtrs | 48.0pp | 145.1% | 52.6% | resolved |
| FY2020 trough to FY2022 peak | 8 qtrs | 17.5pp | 43.5% | 46.8% | resolved |
| FY2023 trough to FY2025 annual | 8 qtrs | 63.1pp | 140.5% | 106.6% | final annual data; cycle unresolved |
Company reads
Issuer and proxy notes
Latest quarter revenue
$23,860M
FY2026 Q2
Latest quarter op margin
67.6%
not annualized
Inventory days
81.6
approx. inventory / revenue per day
Cycle read
Micron is the main case because the consolidated company still gives the cleanest long SEC-filer view of memory-cycle economics. Its latest reviewed quarter, FY2026 Q2, shows operating margin above every historical annual peak in this dataset, but it is not a resolved peak.
Limit
HBM improves the mix and relevance of the business, but it does not make issuer-level Micron a pure HBM margin series.
Fiscal-year note: 52/53-week fiscal year ending on the Thursday closest to August 31.
SNDK
SanDisk
Current standalone flash issuer plus WDC flash predecessor segment history.
Open profile →Latest quarter revenue
$5,950M
FY2026 Q3
Latest quarter op margin
69.1%
not annualized
Inventory days
103.2
approx. inventory / revenue per day
Cycle read
SanDisk is deliberately split into three views: FY2022-FY2024 Form 10 carve-out history, FY2025 first post-separation Form 10-K history, and WDC Flash predecessor revenue/gross profit from original pre-spinoff WDC filings.
Limit
The predecessor segment is not standalone SanDisk Corp financials, and operating income/CapEx were unavailable in the parsed WDC Flash segment tables.
Fiscal-year note: 52/53-week fiscal year ending near late June.
Latest quarter revenue
$3,337M
FY2026 Q3
Latest quarter op margin
35.7%
not annualized
Inventory days
49.5
approx. inventory / revenue per day
Cycle read
Western Digital shows why a consolidated issuer can be relevant but less clean. HDD and flash sit in the same pre-spinoff issuer-level series, so the observed drawdowns are mixed storage-cycle economics rather than a pure NAND proxy.
Limit
FY2025 is post-separation continuing operations and is not treated as the same cycle denominator as the pre-spinoff consolidated rows.
Fiscal-year note: 52/53-week fiscal year ending on the Friday nearest June 30.
INTC
Intel
Logic/CPU control group; no standalone profile in this version.
Latest quarter revenue
$13,577M
FY2026 Q1
Latest quarter op margin
-23.1%
not annualized
Inventory days
80.2
approx. inventory / revenue per day
Cycle read
Intel is the control case. Its drawdown is large, but the cause is different: logic/CPU demand, manufacturing transition, and foundry economics rather than a memory supply-and-pricing cycle.
Limit
No Intel profile is added in this version; it appears only inside the core comparison.
Fiscal-year note: 52/53-week fiscal year ending on the last Saturday in December.
Boundaries
What this does not claim
It does not predict when the current cycle will peak, whether a downturn is imminent, or what forward equity returns should be.
It does not treat WDC Flash predecessor data as standalone SanDisk Corp history. It also does not mix Korean filer data into the SEC-filer dataset.
It does not use later WDC discontinued-operations restatements to reconstruct pre-spinoff flash history. Original pre-spinoff WDC filings are used for FY2024-and-earlier flash segment rows.
Evidence
Source trail
The full row-level provenance lives in semiconductor-cycle-source-mapping.json. The sample below shows the filings that anchor the main claims and exception notes.
| Row | Filing | Period ended | Status / exception |
|---|---|---|---|
| MU-2018 | Form 10-K 0000723125-18-000092 | 2018-08-30 | reviewed |
| MU-2023 | Form 10-K 0000723125-23-000054 | 2023-08-31 | reviewed |
| MU-2026-Q2 | Form 10-Q 0000723125-26-000006 | 2026-02-26 | reviewed 10q actual not annualizedDirect inline-XBRL table review: revenue $23,860M, gross profit $17,755M, operating income $16,135M for the quarter ended February 26, 2026. FY2026 Q3 was not reported as of June 18, 2026. |
| SNDK-FORM10-2022 | Form 10-12B/A Exhibit 99.1 information statement 0001193125-25-013282 | 2022-07-01 | reviewed form10 carveout historySanDisk Form 10 package presents audited combined statements of operations only for FY2022, FY2023, and FY2024. No FY2021 or FY2020 annual combined statements are presented in the Form 10 package. |
| SNDK-2026-Q3 | Form 10-Q 0001628280-26-029401 | 2026-04-03 | reviewed 10q actual not annualizedStandalone SanDisk quarter after the separation. Direct inline-XBRL table review: revenue $5,950M, gross profit $4,662M, operating income $4,111M for the quarter ended April 3, 2026. |
| WDC-FLASH-2020 | Original WDC Form 10-K product revenue disclosure 0000106040-20-000049 | 2020-07-03 | reviewed product revenue only no segment profitOriginal FY2020 WDC 10-K reported one operating segment and disclosed Flash-based revenue only. Flash segment gross profit, operating income, and CapEx were not available in that original filing. FY2022 later presented retroactive Flash/HDD gross-profit comparatives, but those are not used for this original-basis FY2020 row. Do not replace with later discontinued-operations restatements after the SanDisk separation. |
| WDC-FLASH-2024 | Original pre-spinoff WDC Form 10-K 0000106040-24-000031 | 2024-06-28 | reviewed segment revenue gross profit onlyOriginal FY2024 WDC 10-K disclosed Flash revenue, gross profit, and gross margin only. Flash operating income and Flash segment CapEx were not disclosed. Do not replace with later WDC restatements that classify flash/SanDisk as discontinued operations. |
| WDC-2026-Q3 | Form 10-Q 0001628280-26-029054 | 2026-04-03 | reviewed 10q actual post spinoff hdd continuing operationsDirect inline-XBRL table review: revenue $3,337M, gross profit $1,676M, operating income $1,190M for the quarter ended April 3, 2026. WDC's filing states SanDisk became an independent public company and Western Digital no longer consolidates SanDisk; this quarter is continuing operations, not flash-inclusive WDC. |
| INTC-2026-Q1 | Form 10-Q 0000050863-26-000079 | 2026-03-28 | reviewed 10q actual not annualizedDirect inline-XBRL table review: revenue $13,577M, gross profit $5,347M, operating loss $(3,136)M for the quarter ended March 28, 2026. Intel remains a logic/CPU control case, not a memory-cycle peer. |
SK Hynix context source: SK hynix Announces 4Q24 Financial Results. It is included only as industry framing; SK Hynix and Samsung are excluded from the dataset because their reporting regime, currency, and disclosure format are not comparable to the SEC-filer core set.
Scope
This is descriptive business analysis based on public filings. It does not provide investment advice, valuation targets, or trading recommendations.