Digital Infrastructure
Semiconductor cycles, Compute cap-ex & Edge hardware.
Notes & Essays
Inference Efficiency Does Not Eliminate Infrastructure Demand
A framework essay examining why inference efficiency gains reshape rather than eliminate AI infrastructure demand — tracing how lower cost per token expands deployment, shifts workload mix from training toward inference, and changes which parts of the stack face sustained load.
AI Exposure Is Not an Economic Category
A framework essay arguing that 'AI exposure' is a category mistake: AI demand changes economic form as it moves through the value chain — becoming platform leverage at NVIDIA, capital obligation at TSMC, cycle risk at Micron, and volume infrastructure at Vertiv. Treating these as the same economic category produces bad analysis.
Why Frontier Model Progress Is No Longer Just an Algorithm Story (Part III): From Infrastructure Spillover to Market Sorting
Part III extends the series into market sorting: once the AI constraint stack is visible, markets begin to separate bottleneck control from thematic exposure.
Why Frontier Model Progress Is No Longer Just an Algorithm Story (Part II): From System Bottlenecks to Infrastructure Spillover
A series essay on how frontier model bottlenecks propagate outward into GPUs, HBM, advanced packaging, interconnect, optical links, and data center infrastructure.
Why Frontier Model Progress Is No Longer Just an Algorithm Story (Part I): From Transformer Scaling to System Bottlenecks
A framework essay on why frontier model progress is increasingly constrained by system-level scaling limits rather than algorithmic improvement alone. This essay traces the path from Transformer compute shape to memory, bandwidth, interconnect, and heavier inference budgets.
NVIDIA: Supply Chain Constraints & the CoWoS-L Ramp
Recent volatility may reflect a timing mismatch: shipment timing is being read as demand erosion. This note uses a constraint-based framing to explore two physical constraints on revenue recognition—advanced packaging ramp dynamics and downstream cooling retrofit lag.
Palantir Business Model and Operating Efficiency — Public-Data Note
A public-data note using public filings and operating metrics to analyze Palantir's business model and operating efficiency.
Oracle Cloud and Liquidity — Public-Data Note
A public-data note on Oracle's cloud investment, capital plan, and RPO/revenue timing.