Digital Infrastructure
Semiconductor cycles, Compute cap-ex & Edge hardware.
Research & Reports
Why Frontier Model Progress Is No Longer Just an Algorithm Story (Part III): From Infrastructure Spillover to Market Sorting
Part III extends the series into market sorting: once the AI constraint stack is visible, markets begin to separate bottleneck control from thematic exposure.
Why Frontier Model Progress Is No Longer Just an Algorithm Story (Part II): From System Bottlenecks to Infrastructure Spillover
A series essay on how frontier model bottlenecks propagate outward into GPUs, HBM, advanced packaging, interconnect, optical links, and data center infrastructure.
Why Frontier Model Progress Is No Longer Just an Algorithm Story (Part I): From Transformer Scaling to System Bottlenecks
A framework essay on why frontier model progress is increasingly constrained by system-level scaling limits rather than algorithmic improvement alone. We trace the path from Transformer compute shape to memory, bandwidth, interconnect, and heavier inference budgets.
AMZN: The Thermodynamic Moat - Structural Research
The market sees a cash flow collapse; physics sees an energy transition. We analyze Amazon's $200B capital commitment as a strategic lock on baseload power and labor automation.
NVIDIA: Supply Chain Physics & the CoWoS-L Ramp
Recent volatility reflects a category error: shipment timing is being read as demand erosion. Our system-engineering lens highlights two physical governors on revenue recognition—advanced packaging ramp dynamics and downstream thermodynamic retrofit lag.
PLTR: Industrial Logic & Structural Efficiency - Research Note
Our research suggests Palantir has transitioned from a high-touch consulting model to scalable critical infrastructure. We analyze how improved unit economics and GAAP profitability justify the current valuation premium.
Oracle Corp: Valuation vs. Structural Reality
The $50B capital plan signals a forced pivot from asset-light SaaS to capital-intensive utility economics. We flag an extreme divergence between RPO growth and realized revenue.